Friday 8 January 2016

THE BIG MASTERS PREVIEW

If you're worried about the 'Post-Christmas blues' then fear not, it's time for the second Triple Crown event of the season and the very first of the New Year, The Masters. The Masters is right up there for me as my second favourite tournament behind the World Championships. As far as my favourite Masters go, the recent 2013 edition was a fantastic week full of classic matches that I was able to watch practically all of as I was snowed in for a week!!! Any excuse to watch some extra snooker...

Shaun Murphy of course is the defending champion at the Alexandra Palace after his excellent victory that saw him complete the Triple Crown. The Ally Pally has just seen the successful defence of the World Darts Championship by Gary Anderson, so who knows what could be in store over the next 8 days of snooker.

The Alexandra Palace has been a great venue for snooker since 2012, and has witnessed four finals, two of which have been contested between Shaun Murphy and Neil Robertson, while Mark Selby has appeared in the other two at the Ally Pally.

Ronnie O'Sullivan will make his full TV comeback after missing his UK Championships and Champion of Champions title defences at the back end of 2015. What we did see from Ronnie most recently was a victory in Group one of the Championship League winning eight games out of eight and passing 800 career century breaks in the process, and it will be interesting to see if he can take the same good form to the big stage.

Neil Robertson is another of the main contenders given his domination at the UK Championships in York, and the Champion of Champions in Coventry, along with the fact that he has reached three of the last four Masters finals.

That's just a little about some of the contenders though as it's time to go through the draw as I try and predict who I think will really be in the mix at the latter stages in London.

Quarter 1

First Round Draw: (Picks in Bold)

Shaun Murphy Vs Mark Allen
Barry Hawkins Vs Joe Perry

Barry Hawkins has never yet won a match at the Masters, not without chances too also. In 2013 he lost from 3-5 ahead against Judd Trump, while in 2014 it got worse as he lost from 2-5 ahead to Ricky Walden. His form has hardly been sparkling this season so far after a Last 64 exit in the UK Championships and early exits in the Chinese ranking events. When it comes to his chances of winning the Masters I would say it would be a huge surprise to be honest. Hawkins has solidly under performed since the 2014 UK Championships in all truth despite a miraculous performance at the World Championships last season and a win in Riga at the start of this one.

In the first round this week Barry takes on Joe Perry. Joe was able to get his first win in the Masters last season against Ding Junhui and he's in for a tight match this year when he takes on Hawkins. Joe is a quality player and despite some troubles around the time of the UK Championships he has had a good performance or two since winning his first ranking event last season. Though it might not mean very much, when the pair met at the Championship League this week Hawkins won 3-2 from 2-0 down. I expect it to be that close again, but with Hawkins struggling throughout the Championship League and his form overall being poor I fancy Perry to steal that one.

Mark Allen has had yet another unlucky draw at the Masters. After losing to Neil Robertson three years in a row, and on two of those three occasions Neil made the final. He missed out on a final with Neil Robertson at last years Masters after losing to his first round opponent of this year, Shaun Murphy, in the semi-finals. Mark has shown decent form this season so far with a win on the European Tour which led to a run to the final of the Champion of Champions final. However, he disappointed with a Last 32 exit to Martin Gould in the UK Championships in the next event, so that is another thing he will be looking to put right at the Palace. If he can beat Shaun I would certainly fancy him to make it into a third career Masters semi-final, and maybe even to a first ever Masters final. It all depends on how much hard work has really gone in over Christmas, because that is where a lot of players do let themselves down.

Shaun Murphy has been working very hard ahead of his Masters defence and he will be aiming once again to go all the way and have the best possible go at defending his title, his final leg of the Triple Crown he had waited so long for. He loves the venue at the Alexandra Palace which is evident from his previous results there. A final in 2012 was followed up by two semi-finals in 2013 and 2014 before winning the title comprehensively a year ago. Other than a few decent runs on the European Tour, there hasn't been a great deal for Murphy to shout about since his World final loss back in May, but in a way that mirrors how his form had been before he lifted the crystal last season. Since then he has moved out to the peace of the countryside, where he now has a table in his house to practice on as much as he likes and that should pay off for him in the future. It is all set to be a tough match up with his good friend Mark Allen, but he has a very strong record over the Northern Irishman in recent times, and if he can win that match then I feel like he would go from strength to strength thereafter, as the ultimate mirroring of 2015 could be made possible.

Quarter Winner: Shaun Murphy

Quarter 2

First Round Draw: (Picks in Bold)

Judd Trump Vs Stephen Maguire
Neil Robertson Vs Marco Fu

Stephen Maguire is someone who has been in and out of form for a while and as the sixteenth seed he is lucky to even be here. In fact the week after the seedings were cut off and the draw completed, Michael White got to the Gibraltar Open final and knocked Stephen Maguire down to number 17 in the world rankings. His form has been average for quite a while in all truth and he will certainly have to improve if he is to carry on qualifying for events like the Masters. His first round match with Judd Trump is a repeat of the first round last year in which Maguire actually came out on the winning side and while he has half a chance if he plays well, with the quarter that he has landed in I can't see him making it through to the latter stages. 

Marco Fu may only be a couple of places ahead of Stephen Maguire in the seedings but his form is going back in the opposite direction again now. This season has seen Marco catch a European Tour title and make the quarter-finals of both the UK and International Championships. Throughout this period I have been impressed with the continual scoring power that Marco has shown. Fu was a finalist in the last Masters prior to the switch to the Alexandra Palace and has made the quarter-finals in both of the last two years. This year he faces a very tough first round tie with Neil Robertson.

Neil Robertson became the UK champion for the second time in December and has reached three of the four Masters finals held at the Alexandra Palace, and last lost in the first round of the Masters in 2010, prior to winning the World Championships just a few months after. After becoming the Champion of Champions in November as well as UK Champion in the following event, the evidence is all there that Neil is now one of the best when it comes to peaking for the big events because as far as every other event is concerned he has struggled this season. On the European Tour he has only turned up to one event and has been totally non-existent on that front, while just a couple of weeks after winning the UK title he lost to amateur Ashley Hugill 5-1 in German Masters qualifying. It would not surprise me if Marco came out on top of Neil, because what people always forget about the Hong Kong cueist is his scoring power that has always been a good feature of his game and means he won't fear Neil's. With Neil's Masters record though you would equally lack surprise if he went on to win the whole thing or at least make a fourth final in five years.

Judd Trump is my man to really watch out for in this years Masters. For whatever reason Judd has not had the best record in the event, with one semi-final and two first round exits in four visits to the tournament as a full seed (after playing in the old wildcard round in 2009). His main goal (other than winning the World Championships) is a good run at the Masters sighting his poor record as the reason for this. This season for Judd has been a strange one as he has lost some really weird matches. Other than a Shanghai final the season has been a struggle overall with mixed results on the European Tour as well as a Last 32 exit in the UK Championships from 4-1 up and a 6-0 qualifying defeat to Michael Wild in the Last 128 of the International Championships. This season has started better for him with a Championship League group victory at the first time of asking this week, seeing that as valuable match practice for the Masters itself. The first step for Judd will be to earn his revenge on Stephen Maguire for inflicting last years first round exit, but if he can find his inspiring best game then he is certainly one of the main contenders for the title this week.

Quarter Winner: Judd Trump

Quarter 3

First Round Draw: (Picks in Bold)

Mark Selby Vs Ricky Walden
Ronnie O'Sullivan Vs Mark Williams

Ricky Walden has had a poor season so far and by his own admission has plenty of improving to do. While his record in the Masters isn't as bad as some of the other guys in the event, he has never been through to the latter stages and with Mark Selby in round one and his nemesis Ronnie O'Sullivan a possibility if he did get through then I have to make any chance of this changing a high improbability this year.

Mark Williams is back in the Masters this year for the first time since 2013. His opponent in round one is a certain Mr O'Sullivan whom his record against in recent times is hardly anything to write home about. Mark's form this season also falls into somewhat the same category after early exits in the UK Championship and International Championships. He has played ok on the European Tour but mainly against lower ranked players which is why he hasn't quite gotten over the line and won a title. Given the form that Ronnie O'Sullivan exhibited at the Championship League, Williams will certainly be up against it and you have to fancy the Rockets chances a lot more than the Welsh Potting Machine.

Ronnie O'Sullivan is on his full TV comeback here at the Masters since his World Championship quarter-final exit at the end of last season. The first thing not to do with Ronnie is think that he packed his cue away and had all of this time off. Firstly, he had been playing in some of the Pro-Am events (and winning a good amount of these) down at the South West Snooker Academy in Gloucester. He has also been touring the country playing in a host of clubs as part of the snooker legends exhibitions. His actual comeback to the tour came just prior to Christmas in the German Masters qualifiers. On this occasion he won his first qualifying match against Hamza Akbar comfortably before losing to a strong Last 64 opponent in Stuart Carrington who had to play very well there for his 5-3 victory. It was by no means handed to him. Then this week, for some Masters match practice you would imagine, he turned up at Crondon Park in Essex for the Championship League where he won every single won of his six round robin games to top the group and make the semi-finals. He then secured the group one win with 3-0 victories in both the semi's and final. When it comes to playing at the top level at the Masters it has only been two years since he won the title only dropping a handful of frames. Mark Williams has got a big game on his hands in round one, but round two could very much be a different story with a possible match-up with one of his greatest rivals.

Mark Selby is no stranger to going all the way at the Masters. In eight appearances at the Masters he has won it three times in 2008, 2010 and 2013, with two other final appearances in 2009 and 2014. Even last year when he lost 6-5 in the opening round, it was to the eventual winner Shaun Murphy, whom he was also beaten by in the 2012 quarter-finals. Mark will be pleased with his match practice in the Championship League second group this week as he won all of his six group matches to top the group, before losing in the semi-finals to eventual group winner Judd Trump. While there has been no title for Selby so far in the 2015/2016 season, he did reach the last four in the UK and International Championships before losing to the eventual winner of both. He is no stranger to performing on the big stage and the one table set-up of the Masters has always been one of Selby's favourites to perform on. I would certainly fancy him to beat Ricky Walden in round one, and if you think he could be the greatest challenger to the Rocket with their possible quarter-final meeting then the 9/1 you can get with Coral on him to win the title is a massive price, and he is still available at 8/1 in other places too.

Quarter Winner: Mark Selby

Quarter 4

First Round Draw: (Picks in Bold)

John Higgins Vs Liang Wenbo
Stuart Bingham Vs Ding Junhui

Liang Wenbo is on debut at the Masters after making the final of the UK Championships in December, which elevated him to number 15 in the world. He has also made the semi-finals of the Gibraltar Open the week after, but after an extended break it will be interesting to see if he can carry that form on to the Ally Pally and end his Higgins hoodoo. He has never beaten John in any of their previous meetings, including their most recent one at this seasons Shanghai Masters where John was a convincing winner. However, if can re-create that snooker from December and beat Higgins he could easily become a dark horse for this event too. With some of the twitching he did under pressure at the UK then he will have to keep his nerves under control on his first Masters outing if he is to beat Higgins and overall I have too favour John to win that one.

John Higgins is a player of major quality as we all know and has of course won the Masters title twice in his career coming into this years edition. However, in 21 overall appearances at the Masters featuring in every single one since 1995, he has lost in the first round on 11 occasions which equates to half. To put it into perspective, he has been to one less final of the Masters than Mark Selby with Selby having 13 less appearances, and his greatest rival Ronnie O'Sullivan has won more Masters titles than John has reached Masters finals. In fact, it has been 10 years since John's last Masters final which was when he won the title in 2006. He has regained some form this season with a big ranking victory at the International Championships and a deciding frame loss to eventual UK champion Neil Robertson in the quarter-finals. The year ended poorly as he failed to secure German Masters qualification and this one started in a weird fashion too at the Championship League. Turning up for group one he was only able to win two of his six round robin games and was eliminated from the overall competition after finishing sixth in the group. From what I saw of Higgins he looked like he couldn't really be bothered and was far too relaxed. Even if it is only match practice for the Masters he should still take it seriously and you would certainly be looking for stronger signs than the ones he gave out. If he is on his game he could easily beat Wenbo in round one who is on Masters debut, and a player he has never lost to in his career and the semi-finals at least is a major possibility but he will have to play very well to win the whole thing.

Ding Junhui comes to the Masters in an interesting position. On the slide in the rankings after a very poor year and a half in the game it is hard to see when the Chinaman's form is going to return. A first round exit in the UK Championships continued a very poor trend of results in the UK since he won his Masters title in 2011 and reached the World semi-finals in the same year. In fact since winning the Masters at the Wembley Arena in 2011 he has failed to win a match at the Masters in the four that have been held at the Alexandra Palace. That has not been without chances either. In 2013 he was 5-3 ahead of Neil Robertson before losing the last three frames and from 4-2 ahead to Shaun Murphy in the 2014 Masters he lost the last four to lose 6-4. Last year he was the third seed for the event but never looked like a factor in a 6-3 loss to Joe Perry. The only hope of victory he has is that he is playing a man in Stuart Bingham who has never won a match at the Masters in all of his appearances, but there is certainly nothing in Ding's form that would suggest a run in this tournament is possible.

Stuart Bingham may not have won a match in the Masters, having appeared consistently since 2012, but he has never turned up to any of those events with the confidence of being world champion. The Christmas break came at exactly the right time for Stuart in my opinion. After struggling for form in the main ranking events a little bit after winning the World title in May, he has now had some more reflection time. He still made the Shanghai Masters semi-finals in September, and despite a Last 32 exit at York he finished the year by making the semi-finals of the Gibraltar Open and getting two very nice wins to secure German Masters qualification. That will help him feel better about his game, and he has now had some key time ahead of the competition to practice and come into the Masters fresh and raring to go. On top of this his recent record against Ding Junhui in their major meetings is a very favourable one for Stuart. He may see this as a chance to prove a point after a half-season hangover from winning the World Championships and with his draw the way it is he could easily make it into the semi-finals if other players don't find their form and he plays near his best.

Quarter Winner: Stuart Bingham

Tournament Runner-Up: Mark Selby

Tournament Winner: Judd Trump


That's my verdict, and I hope that my reasoning helps you to come up with your own. How close will we all be, well we will have to wait until next Sunday to find that one out. I'm sure that we will have a fantastic event to watch throughout the eight days of action from the Alexandra Palace on BBC in the UK or on Eurosport. All of the usual suspects will be there for the BBC, along with a new punditry face as Peter Ebdon steps in for the Sunday and Monday of the event, and knowing how strong an opinion that Peter has about things along with an incredible snooker brain he will be a fantastic addition to the team.

I hope you have all enjoyed my preview and will come back for more of my analysis throughout the event.

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